Why the Microsoft Trial is the end of the world as we know it

I’m a pretty sick guy. I actually find the legal proceedings of the computer industry fascinating- because they are very often a harbinger of things to come. Consider the US vs. Microsoft (1998). After years of being prodded by the whole computing industry and consumer groups, the US DOJ has finally gotten serious to stop Microsoft’s belligerent business practices- with emphasis on Microsoft’s browser and Java strategy. While these are by no means Microsoft’s most serious misdealings, They do suggest a serious shift in focus for both Microsoft and our business culture- both Microsoft and the consumer recognize that the Internet has (perhaps unavoidably) the potential to displace computing as we understand it.

The 'Cats and Dogs' columns revolve around the idea that computers are machines for increasing human productivity and not an end in and of itself (was that a misuse of prepositions?! :). It appears that the Internet is quickly becoming the great computing equalizer. Netscape, while the first the popularize a standard interface that is useable by a non IS grad student, did not realize (recognize?) the massive potential their idea had- The 'browser' has the potential to make the modern operating system obsolete and unnecessary. Not possible, you say? So did Netscape. Microsoft and Sun, on the other hand, did see this, and became locked in a race to control it.

Microsoft, the 800lbs gorilla, had enough power and clout to muscle their 'browser' onto their customers- shoving hundreds of millions of dollars for developing it. While it appears that, on its face, Internet Explorer brought no revenue, It was absolutely CRUCIAL that the Internet browser became a part of the OS for Microsoft because the merger of the browser and OS guarantees that their OS would continue to be needed! Netscape was concerned with making a browser; Microsoft wanted the browser to cease to exist as an independent application.

Sun’s approach was the opposite of Microsoft's, but to the same end. They developed a highly portable language called Java, with the concept that apps can be EXECUTED through the Internet, making the local OS is minor and unimportant- just enough to handle local I/O and net connection. Not a bad idea, but suffering from two problems- bandwidth, and the still resonating stigma of 70's style centralized computing. Both of these issues are lessening with time- and both Sun and Microsoft know this.

Regardless of who's paradigm wins over in time, one thing is clear- In the near future, your 'browser' will become more important then your OS. As bandwidth increases and improves, Applications will migrate from your hard drive to a server- no more local system crashes, ridiculously bloated office apps with equally ridiculously bloated prices, and no more piracy. Your 'browser' will now become an interface to your work. Computers will polarize into two categories- the client and the server. In the Server OS, The user interface will continue to take a back seat to power, flexibility, and stability. I don’t see Unix being displaced at all- if anything, I predict NT's prevalence will erode and fade as Linux matures. Other vendors would either have to find a compelling niche to justify their OS costs or die- luckily, content creation would still require more power, storage, and capability than a basic internet processing machine, so there will still be room.

And as for the client? Darn fine question. Today, many of us are stuck in the 'the Mac interface is superior' or 'Windows XX has a context sensitive right mouse button' etc etc ad nauseum. What If the applications are the same, running over the net? Would Microsoft or Apple be able to sell their OS at the insanely inflated prices they are used to? If not, would they be able to continue developing them? Would we, as consumers, care? Case in point- Already today, extensions to HTML such as flash make it feasible to have attractive and interactive applications. Feel free to stop by our website, http://www.designamics.com, to see some examples. Yahoo uses Java extensively to make a fully featured email client completely over the web, with basic word processing capability- its not a big stretch to see this merging to a full fledged productivity application. Many databases already exist with HTML front ends- and this is just the beginning. Games require local processing power to process their graphics rendering, but beyond that there is no reason the game software and textures can't come over a unified Internet protocol (VRML is just functional enough to offer a glimpse of this)

In the next few years, you will get a computer with an ISP service contract. Free. How important would it be if its says Apple, Dell, or Earthlink on it, if they all do the same things, the same way? The iPC (NOT to be confused with an 'IBM PC compatible', but the Internet PERSONAL COMPUTER) would have some basic performance and feature requirements, and beyond that would differences would be largely irrelevant. At the same time, I don’t think we need to lament to death of platform computing- evolution is a good thing ;)

I welcome all questions and comments at akoyshman@jps.net or designamics@jps.net
Or visit my web site at: http://www.designamics.com